D score vs E score

[medstudent24]

While I get more data from the other thread, I ran the numbers to see what translates into more medals, a high start value, or a high execution score...


I looked at every World Championships since 2006 and the Oympics. The results are:


Probability that the gymnast with the highest SV will win Gold: 61.2%
Probability that the gymnast with the highest Execution score will win Gold: 54%

Probability that the highest SV will medal (place in the top 3): 68%
Probability that the highest E score will medal: 60%

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Essentially, having a high SV is more valuable than having a high E score. This is really not that surprising, but once you break it down for each event, something interesting happens:

On FX- Highest SV means Gold 74.8% of the time
On BB- Highest SV means Gold 45% of the time
On UB- Highest SV means Gold 51% of the time
On VT- Highest SV means Gold 74% of the tie.

Soooo having a high SV will serve you well on VT and FX, but no so much on BB and UB. The odds seem to be against you the most on BB, where a high enough E score is needed to come out on top.


Note- Several times, the gymnast with the highest SV failed to medal because of a fall. If those cases were not accounted for, the probabilities would rise to around 95%

[triplefull368]

Oh geez. *twitch. *twitchtwitch.

WHAT HAS THE WORLD COME TO???

The only event that the new COP makes sense on, in my opinion, is vault. And even then that statement only goes so far.

[raluca]

I believe Li Shanshan contributed to that low percentage all by her headcasey self.

[smiles]

Originally Posted by triplefull368

Oh geez. *twitch. *twitchtwitch.

WHAT HAS THE WORLD COME TO???

The only event that the new COP makes sense on, in my opinion, is vault. And even then that statement only goes so far.

Really? I don't think a crappy Amanar should have so much of a D-score advantage that it outscores a well-done DTY.

[greenlove]

Originally Posted by smiles

Really? I don't think a crappy Amanar should have so much of a D-score advantage that it outscores a well-done DTY.

I think that was a problem from the last Code and quad,too. Hopefully based on the scoring we saw at Worlds, a Shawn Johnson or Tatiana Nabieva Amanar isn't going to score as well as a clean DTY.

[Yang Yilin AA and UB gold]

Originally Posted by greenlove

I think that was a problem from the last Code and quad,too. Hopefully based on the scoring we saw at Worlds, a Shawn Johnson or Tatiana Nabieva Amanar isn't going to score as well as a clean DTY.

I guess Shawn's amanar wouldn't have been credited finally if they really raise the execution demands. As for NAbievas's Amanar, I just hope a clean DTY outmarks that thing 10 times over 10. Look:

Not counting deductions for height, distance, bent arms or twisting on the table, because I think both vaults are comparable in those aspects.

Nabieva's amanar:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmQc75FoAeI
0.3 leg sep in preflight,
0.3 bendt knees in preflight
0.1 leg sep in postflight,
0.3 bendt knees in postflight
0.1 feet apart landing
lack of precision in landing 0.1
Deviation from straight line 0.1
Body posture on landing 0.3
Two steps 0.2

Kayla Williams DTY (see at 2.05)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmQc75FoAeI
She didn't get any of the deductions listed above, other than maybe a 0.1 leg sep in postflight and a 0.1 feet apart landing (BTW, less noticiable than Nabieva's)

That makes 1.6 of execution difference in favour of Kayla, enough to make up for the O.7 difference in SV.

[NastiaFan101]

The only reason Nabieva would want to do the Amanar is because it will score 7 tenths higher than her crappy DTY