the best junior, by the numbers

medstudent24 · #1 12-15-2009

All this talk about Komova and Mustafina got me thinking how good they REALLY are compared to the rising American talent. I took the highest scores each gymnast received on each apparatus and combined them to come up with a total. The results are...

1. Jordyn Wieber. VT-15.75 UB-14.8 BB-15 FX-14.65 AA: 60.2
2. Viktoria Komova. VT-15.1 UB-15.45 BB-14.955 FX-14.3 AA: 59.805
3. Kyla Ross. VT-15.2 UB-14.15 BB-15 FX-14.2 AA: 58.55
4. Aliya Mustafina. VT-14.850 UB-14.825 BB-14.175 FX-14.650 AA: 58.5

So the Russians are good, really good. Almost as good as the Americans.

Looking at the scores of the other Russians and Americans (including seniors), a Team event would have the US coming out on top, with Russia second followed closely by China. (I'll post the exact number on this shortly).

Notes
-Wieber's total comes from the American Cup, in which she may or may not have been overscored, just like Komova may or may not have been overscored at the Junior Japan Int. meet, where her highest total was received.
- It's a moot point to see where these scores fit into the recent Worlds (they'd all be in the top). What I did here was take the highest score per event across many competitions, which is not really realistic. It's just a measure of how high the gymnast can score, not how they will score.

Thoughts on the future
-Kyla Ross is relying heavily on stellar execution scores, the rest are maximizing D scores. Since the COP new shift *allegedly* rewards execution over difficulty, I'm thinking she could have an advantage, specially since there's plenty of room for upgrades.
-The US currently has 4 great AA'ers (Bross, Sloan, Ross, Wieber). Even if Sloan pulls out by the time the Olympics roll around, it'd be interesting to see who gets the two AA spots.
-If Liukin comes back to UB and BB by next year's Worlds, the Team advantage for the US increases, significantly.
-As it stands, the 2 powerhouses are the US and Russia. Should make for a VERY interesting quad

ChocButterfly · #2 12-15-2009

Yay! I love Jordyn! She's the only Junior I'm excited to see. Although I heard she's injured, she should be ready by 2012, no?

With the new number restrictions per country can the US afford to bring 2 event specialists? I'm not sure.

selecious · #3 12-15-2009

just out of curiosity though, aren't most of jordan's score's achieved in the US and wasn't komova's achieved in Japan? I keep hearing that scores here in the US tend to be inflated and that Asian and European judges are harsher judges. I am curious about the accuracy of this though.

looking good though, can't wait to see how things progress.

vanessasarah · #4 12-15-2009

I worry about Weiber. It seems to me that 13 is a bit young to be throwing such insane tricks. She seems like a lovely girl--I enjoyed seeing her at Scam this year--but I worry she'll break before she gets anywhere near her potential.

medstudent24 · #5 12-15-2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by selecious

just out of curiosity though, aren't most of jordan's score's achieved in the US and wasn't komova's achieved in Japan? I keep hearing that scores here in the US tend to be inflated and that Asian and European judges are harsher judges. I am curious about the accuracy of this though.

looking good though, can't wait to see how things progress.

well I thought about this, but I honestly don't think Wieber was overscored. Ultimately it's subjective judgment so others may feel differently. If we only focus on E scores though, Wieber comes out on top (thanks to her Amanar).

Personally, I think the London AA winner is someone we haven't heard from yet.

alattejava · #6 12-15-2009

I read in an interview that Jordyn's coach said that he was going to drop the frequency of the Amanar or not train it until she's a senior. He is also going to "slow her down" (my words), so it would appear that he learned from that scary landing at ScAm. Of course, it remains to be seen. The one thing the Mustafinas and Komova have that Jordyn doesn't (at least not yet, but that could change) is artistry.

PavLiukin · #7 12-15-2009

It concerns me to no end that Wieber, according to scores, is "better" than Komova. *sigh*

macassar88 · #8 12-15-2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by medstudent24

All this talk about Komova and Mustafina got me thinking how good they REALLY are compared to the rising American talent. I took the highest scores each gymnast received on each apparatus and combined them to come up with a total. The results are...

1. Jordyn Wieber. VT-15.75 UB-14.8 BB-15 FX-14.65 AA: 60.2
2. Viktoria Komova. VT-15.1 UB-15.45 BB-14.955 FX-14.3 AA: 59.805
3. Kyla Ross. VT-15.2 UB-14.15 BB-15 FX-14.2 AA: 58.55
4. Aliya Mustafina. VT-14.850 UB-14.825 BB-14.175 FX-14.650 AA: 58.5

So the Russians are good, really good. Almost as good as the Americans.

Looking at the scores of the other Russians and Americans (including seniors), a Team event would have the US coming out on top, with Russia second followed closely by China. (I'll post the exact number on this shortly).

Notes
-Wieber's total comes from the American Cup, in which she may or may not have been overscored, just like Komova may or may not have been overscored at the Junior Japan Int. meet, where her highest total was received.
- It's a moot point to see where these scores fit into the recent Worlds (they'd all be in the top). What I did here was take the highest score per event across many competitions, which is not really realistic. It's just a measure of how high the gymnast can score, not how they will score.

Thoughts on the future
-Kyla Ross is relying heavily on stellar execution scores, the rest are maximizing D scores. Since the COP new shift *allegedly* rewards execution over difficulty, I'm thinking she could have an advantage, specially since there's plenty of room for upgrades.
-The US currently has 4 great AA'ers (Bross, Sloan, Ross, Wieber). Even if Sloan pulls out by the time the Olympics roll around, it'd be interesting to see who gets the two AA spots.
-If Liukin comes back to UB and BB by next year's Worlds, the Team advantage for the US increases, significantly.
-As it stands, the 2 powerhouses are the US and Russia. Should make for a VERY interesting quad

How about the Chinese juniors? Are there any good AAers? I know that Cui Jie and Wu Liufang can't vault.

WangXiangu · #9 12-15-2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by macassar88

How about the Chinese juniors? Are there any good AAers? I know that Cui Jie and Wu Liufang can't vault.

Tan Sixin is very good on UB, BB, and FX. At the moment, she's vaulting a FTY, but I imagine she'll upgrade to at least a 1.5 by the time she turns senior in 2011. I don't have her D-scores handy right now, but I can try to post them later.

Wu Liufang will probably start training V in '10, but not so much for AA, mostly for the 5-5-4 team format at the 2012 Olympics.

LilyPod · #10 12-15-2009

Ok.

With all due respect, Dr. Aleksei

I cannot see Wieber's SCAM scores as a legitimate comparison to what Komova scored at the Junior International. Has Wieber competed in any international AA meets this year?

IMO Komova's gymnastics just as acrobatically amazing as Wiebers, and is infinitely better in terms of presentation, beauty, and polish, and in an old thread selecious posted about current d-score leaders , I believe she came out with a higher cumulative d-panel overall (despite the 0.7 she loses to Jordyn on vault) as she does some insane tricks too, but with a compliment of beautiful execution and artistry. I'm over the moon about her gymnastics (because it's so artistic. Wieber is fairly clean and has nice rhythm on beam but she's a trickster gymnast to me)

But I feel that each gym-fan should be his or her own judge so make of these what you may:

Komova vault: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1B3kd7XhU8
Komova bars: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBCUGVta_I8
Komova beam: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRAG4XS-wyk
Komova floor: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8GMr...eature=related

Wieber vault: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ff_B1OWH6Qo
Wieber bars: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lFZi3m7FM4
Wieber beam: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJ76Wtgg2g4
Wieber floor: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzI44d62pJY

Gah, looking at these two makes me despise the age limits to a whole new degree... they're such ridiculous proof that the age limits don't (and have never) stopped juniors from training and competing difficult skills. On the plus side two of the world's best gymnasts are being barred from major competitions until 2011!

I agree that Kyla Ross rocks. Unfortunately she won't be seen in major competitions until 2012. I also think it's a bit premature to declare her, Bross, and Wieber as members of the 2012 Olympic team and potential AA finalists as the Olympics are three years away.

With the talent they have coming up Russia should be able to challenge the US and China for team titles by 2011. This is their quadrennium to rejuvenate and become a gymnastics power once again.