Who will win Vault at Rotterdam^^?

[kitty]

Oh man, Hong Un Jong was a complete mess and you think she could beat Alicia with those two vaults? Sheesh, if Asac came with her sky high clean rudi and totally clean DTY, she could beat Hong Un Jong every day of the week. Those vaults were nastified.

[hatboro96]

Originally Posted by kitty

Oh man, Hong Un Jong was a complete mess and you think she could beat Alicia with those two vaults? Sheesh, if Asac came with her sky high clean rudi and totally clean DTY, she could beat Hong Un Jong every day of the week. Those vaults were nastified.

YES!! haha...I find that Alicia has power and can get good difficulty, but she won't go for the difficulty unless it's clean, I think Hong Un Jong is the oppisite, she will just throw her highest difficulty.

Her rudi at Classics is probably one of the best I have seen(and probably her best) and her FTY was defintly WAY to easy for her! So if she can bring that clean DTY everyone expects, she has a great shot!

[WangXiangu]

It's gotta be Alicia. No other winner will do.

[kitty]

Kurbs is a horrible vaulter. I can see her getting 6s and 7s if she performs like she did at Euros (she wouldn't deserve any better).

[lightingbolt]

Watch out for Oksana Chusovitina because she will win this again after 7 years.

[kitty]

I actually give Chuso and Alicia the best chances of winning currently. Chuso still has those messy legs though...it will be close.

[cgallet1]

I think Alicia's execution of her vaults should give her more of an advantage now that the deductions are stricter. I think as of now she has the best chance of winning. If she upgrades one or both of her vaults and can land them she might be unbeatable.
If Hong Un Jong can land both of her 6.5 SV vaults she would obviously have a good chance also but her landings are usually quite poor and off line. I'm not sure if she's even landed both vaults in the same competition since 2008 (if she has I haven't seen it).
I'm not expecting Chuso to be at her best on vault at this point with all of her injuries and the time she's missed. Last time I saw her she was doing easier vaults.
I'm hoping Jade will be back in the vault finals although I'm not sure if she'll be able to do an Amanar or Cheng again. There is a training video of her from May where she does a DTY so she at least has that back.
Ariella's vaults have too many deductions for her to win unless people make mistakes. And the 2nd one has a lower start value. She should have a chance at a medal though.
Does anyone know what Zamarippa's second vault is (if she has one)? If she really has a Cheng and a decent 2nd vault she'd have a shot at a medal if she can make the US team. I think she would need to upgrade other events (probably bars) first to be able to make the team.
I think Dufournet and Kurbatova's vaults are too easy to win unless they have upgraded.
If Nabieva has an Amanar or triple she might have a chance at a medal but if she's deducted appropriately for her bent knees and still has an easier 2nd vault, I don't think she'll win.

[macassar88]

Originally Posted by kitty

Kurbs is a horrible vaulter. I can see her getting 6s and 7s if she performs like she did at Euros (she wouldn't deserve any better).

Can you write out your 3-4 points of deductions then show your deductions for a different gymnast? I know that Sacramone has much cleaner vaults than kurbatova, but if you think kurbatova should get a 6 or 7 execution score, alicia deserves a 8.5 max