Hamm's True Impact

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The pecking order of men's gymnastics got a whole lot more interesting with the complete and impressive return of Paul Hamm at the Winter Cup in Las Vegas. Not only does Hamm, 25, present an immediate challenge to the 2008 Olympic all-around title, his presence also consolidates the potential of a mercurial U.S. men's team, which placed 13th and fourth at the last two world championships.

That Hamm's self-imposed hiatus is finally over should help the U.S. men's program fill some holes very nicely and add a little swagger, as well. This is certainly a great time for men's national team coordinator Ron Brant and 2008 Olympic coach Kevin Mazeika. How often can you suddenly plug someone of Hamm's status into your lineup?

"It's a great addition, obviously, having the defending Olympic champion back on our team," Mazeika said. "It helps the entire country … and I think he helps push everybody to that next level."

Adds Brant: "The one thing Paul brings that you just can't replace is the experience and the focus…. Anything is possible [for our team], and we're leaving the door open for all possibilities at this Olympics."

So what are the realistic chances in Beijing for the U.S. team, which won the silver medal in 2004? Let's quickly crunch some numbers. In Athens, under the old 10.0 scoring system, Japan defeated the U.S., 173.821-172.933, a difference of .888. China, which collapsed to fifth, scored only 171.257. The maximum team total was 180.000.

At the 2007 World Championships, under the current open-ended scoring system, the top four teams were China (281.900), Japan (277.025), Germany (273.525) and the U.S. (272.275). Replace the low scores on each event for the U.S. with Hamm's Winter Cup preliminary scores and the total climbs to 275.575, good enough for the bronze but still well shy of the silver.

While no victory is ever secure, the new Code of Points is not nearly as penal as the old Code. China's considerable margin of victory at the 2007 worlds was built largely on its superior combination of A- and B-scores (difficulty, execution). Even with multiple falls, China could still finish on top in Beijing because 1) falls account for a smaller percentage of the final score as they did four years ago, and 2) the additive A-score further neutralizes the negative effect of a fall. With their high Start Values, the Chinese simply have more room for error.

Hamm's impact in the all-around competition could be a different story. If you can trust his scores from the Winter Cup — and some of them were generous, according to insiders — Hamm is already a threat to favorite Yang Wei of China. And Hamm, who rated his Winter Cup effort an 8.5 out of 10, should only improve in the next six months. Yes, he's about a full point shy of Yang in difficulty, but that can be made up with clean execution. "I think he's at a level that I don't know if I even could reach," Hamm says of Yang's difficulty, specifically on rings, vault and parallel bars.

But Hamm was obviously encouraged by his first all-around outing since the 2004 Olympics. "I had a couple mistakes at Winter Cup that, if I avoid, would put me up above probably the 94-range in the all-around," he predicts. "I think at that point I become competitive with almost anyone in the world."

Yang won the last worlds with 93.675 (93.925 in prelims), and Hamm logged a 93.050 on day two of the Winter Cup, which included a fall on his Kasamatsu-1.5 vault.

Hamm will be tested on a grander scale March 1 at the American Cup in New York, a meet that's set to include Fabian Hambüchen, Hisashi Mizutori and Jonathan Horton, a trio that placed second, third and fourth all-around at the 2007 worlds.

"I have to admit that I'm really impressed by what Paul did or is still doing," Hambüchen told IG. "His comeback is amazing! I always looked at his homepage (makingtheolympics.com), how his progress is, and he got back in shape really fast. He has a tough program and it won't be easy to beat him, but that's not my aim … I just want to have a good and fair competition and the best one will win. I know I also have a tough program and also a small chance to reach the top."

Hamm has to be considered the favorite to win the American Cup, and a victory there will send a strong message to Yang. The compact Chinese gymnast will know that the challenge — and pressure — to win at home in Beijing will be that much greater. Yes, Hamm's return has already made things a lot more interesting.